Spain is bracing for a significant winter weather episode after the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) issued a special warning for snowfall affecting the central, northern and eastern parts of the country from Sunday 4 to Tuesday 6 January. The likelihood of the event has been placed between 40 and 70 per cent.
Spa.in Press
Despite remaining forecast uncertainties, Aemet expects Monday 5 January to mark the peak of the episode, when snowfall is likely to be most widespread and disruptive.
Clash of air masses behind the winter outbreak
The situation will be driven by a complex atmospheric setup. A cut-off low-pressure system, named Francis, is moving towards the Gulf of Cádiz, transporting warm and moisture-laden subtropical air into south-western Spain. At the same time, a very cold Arctic air mass will advance southwards, supported by a stationary low over Scandinavia and high pressure across the North Atlantic.
This collision of air masses is expected to create a strong northerly airflow, leading to a sharp drop in temperaturesand snowfall at unusually low altitudes.
Torrential rain in the south and a sharp drop in snow levels
On Sunday 4 January, as the system shifts towards the Mediterranean and easterly winds intensify, heavy rainfall is forecast across the southern and south-eastern regions. In areas such as the Strait of Gibraltar, the province of Málaga and around Cape Nao, rainfall totals could exceed 80 millimetres within 12 hours.
Meanwhile, the arrival of Arctic air will cause a rapid fall in snow levels, with snow possible at almost any altitude in parts of the Cantabrian Mountains, the northern Iberian System, eastern areas of the northern plateau, the Central System and the northern slopes of the Pyrenees, later spreading to the southern Iberian System.
Monday set to be the most disruptive day
According to Aemet, Monday 5 January is expected to be the most challenging day of the episode. The heaviest snowfall is forecast across interior regions of eastern Spain, with snow falling regardless of altitude in some areas. Light but persistent snowfall is also possible in low-lying central regions.
From midday onwards, a shift to northerly winds along the Cantabrian coast is likely to intensify snowfall, with snow levels falling to between 400 and 600 metres. Local accumulations of up to five centimetres are possible in parts of southern Aragón, eastern Castilla-La Mancha, inland areas of the Valencian Community and the Catalan pre-coastal ranges and Pyrenees.
Conditions ease on Tuesday
By Tuesday 6 January, the most likely scenario points to a gradual weakening of Storm Francis as it moves into the central Mediterranean. Snowfall is expected to ease early in the day across the eastern and south-eastern regions, although snow may persist along the Cantabrian coast.
Sharp temperature drop and widespread frost
The influx of Arctic air will bring a marked fall in temperatures, with widespread frost across much of inland Spainon Monday and Tuesday. Frosts are expected to be moderate across the plateaus and locally severe in mountainous areas, particularly in the Pyrenees.
Aemet has advised the public to monitor weather updates closely and to exercise caution when travelling, especially on roads affected by snow and ice.
