Spain’s conservative People’s party remains comfortably ahead of the governing Socialists, while Vox records the strongest gains in the latest DYM poll. The survey comes after a turbulent summer dominated by the migration crisis in Ceuta and growing public concern over housing, immigration and the cost of living.
Spain Expat Press Editorial Team
Spain’s political landscape has shifted further after the summer, with the governing Socialist party (PSOE) losing support and the far-right Vox making gains, according to the latest polling by the DYM institute.
The survey, published on 24 September, puts the conservative People’s party (PP) on 34.7% of the vote, comfortably ahead of the PSOE on 26.3%.
The PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is down marginally – 0.2 percentage points since July – but remains above the 33.1% it secured in Spain’s 2023 general election. DYM estimates that the party would win between 144 and 148 seats in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies.
The PSOE, meanwhile, has fallen by 0.7 points since July and now stands about five points below its result in the last general election. The poll projects between 102 and 105 seats for the party.
The most notable gains are recorded by Vox.
Santiago Abascal’s party is polling at 17.3%, almost one percentage point higher than in July and roughly five points above its result in the 2023 election. DYM estimates that Vox would secure between 58 and 61 seats.
On those figures, the PP and Vox would together hold between 202 and 209 seats, comfortably exceeding the 176 required for an absolute majority.
Voters moving between the parties
The polling also points to significant movement between Spain’s main political blocs.
According to DYM, 8.7% of those who voted for the PSOE in 2023 say they would now support the PP.
At the same time, the PP is losing some of its previous voters to its right: 10.4% of people who backed Feijóo’s party in 2023 say they would now vote for Vox.
The figures suggest that the changing political landscape cannot be explained simply by voters moving from the left directly to the right. Instead, support appears to be shifting at several points across the political spectrum.
Ceuta crisis dominates political debate
The poll follows an extraordinary summer in which the migration crisis in Ceuta became one of the most contentious issues in Spanish politics.
Immigration also emerges as one of the areas in which public dissatisfaction is particularly pronounced.
According to DYM, 76.3% of respondents believe the situation regarding immigration has worsened during the current parliamentary term.
The timing of the PSOE’s decline and Vox’s gains inevitably places the Ceuta crisis at the centre of the political debate. However, an opinion poll can show changes in voting intentions but cannot establish that a single event is responsible for them.
Socialists close to previous polling low
At 26.3%, the PSOE is approaching one of its lowest readings in the DYM series during the current parliamentary term.
In June 2025, amid the political fallout from the so-called Cerdán affair, the party fell to 26.1%.
The picture is also difficult for parties to the left of the Socialists.
Sumar has recovered slightly and would take 4.5% of the vote, with a maximum of seven seats according to the projection.
Podemos has slipped to 3.7%, giving it an estimated two to three MPs.
Taken together, the two parties are more than four percentage points below the result achieved when Spain’s fragmented left contested the 2023 general election under a broader electoral alliance.
Whether those forces can reach another agreement before the next election is likely to become an increasingly important question.
Spain’s political leaders struggle to win public approval
The poll also paints a bleak picture of public attitudes towards the country’s leading politicians.
None receives an average score of five out of 10.
Feijóo records the highest rating, at 3.2, followed by prime minister Pedro Sánchez and Yolanda Díaz, both on 3.0. Abascal receives 2.9, while Podemos leader Ione Belarra is rated at 2.2.
Asked specifically whom they would prefer to lead the government, 36.2% choose Feijóo and 34.7% Sánchez.
That represents a marked change from May, when 42.9% named Sánchez compared with 36.6% for Feijóo.
Housing tops the list of public concerns
The survey suggests that dissatisfaction extends well beyond party politics.
Housing produces the most striking result. Some 77.8% of respondents believe access to housing has deteriorated over the past three years.
Immigration follows closely behind, with 76.3% saying the situation has worsened, while 75.8% say the same about inflation.
A majority also believe the situation has deteriorated regarding corruption, at 69.1%, and healthcare, at 62.3%.
Views on unemployment are more mixed. While 43.1% believe the situation has worsened, 27.2% say it has remained broadly unchanged and 24.5% believe it has improved.
Government approval falls
The government itself has also suffered a decline in its ratings.
Respondents give the administration an average score of just 3.7 out of 10, down from 4.4 in May.
Some 54.2% give the government a negative assessment, compared with 40.4% who view its performance positively.
The latest DYM poll therefore captures a political landscape that looks markedly different from the one that emerged from Spain’s 2023 general election: the PP holds a substantial lead over the PSOE, Vox has strengthened its position, and the parties to the left of the Socialists remain fragmented.
As with all opinion polling, however, the figures represent a snapshot rather than an election result. Whether the shifts recorded after the summer become lasting changes in Spain’s electorate will depend on how the political landscape develops in the months ahead.
